"Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something." - Thomas A. Edison
"I have found that people who can successfully resist temptation invariably lead depressingly stunted lives." — C.D. Payne
"So don't weep for me now, my friends, because science insists that I have not died.
Energy just always changes state and I refuse to believe that human consciousness is the sole exception to this universal law."
- Mark Millar
"Do only butterflies die in flames? What about those devoured by the flames within them?" - E.M. Cioran

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Closer Committees And Confused Colloquialisms

Wow.  This all started out because I have Ryan Madson on my fantasy baseball team.  For those of you who do not know, Madson emerged from a pack of relievers to be crowned the Phillies' closer early on in the season.  More recently he did a stint on the disabled list, from which he has just returned.  In his absence I had added Antonio Bastardo (real name) who handled the Fightin' Phils' closing duties with aplomb whilst Madson healed.  Now that both are healthy, the well wizened Charlie Manuel (wasn't he senile when he was in Cleveland?) has suggested that the NL East leaders will use the dreaded "closer by committee."  This spawned the question, "Has the closer by committee ever been used successfully?"

As I dug for the answer to this question, I felt the need to refine my query.  I decided, somewhat arbitrarily, to discover if teammates had ever posted 20 saves.  Some might argue that this is too limited a standard, that teams like the '85 Cardinals or 1990 Reds should apply.  I do not buy it.  A successful closer-by-committee implies that there was consistent and equitable success.  One guy with 30 saves and one with 10 is irrelevant.  Two dudes with 13 means the team sucked. 

Now, baseball-reference.com has a great tool to discover exactly such situations.  Unfortunately, they want me to pay for the privilege of using it.  F that.  After much Googling, it seems that a team has had two relievers with 20 saves or more exactly once: the 1986 New York Mets.

The '86 Mets won the World Series (What up, Bill Buckner?), so this is pretty fantastic success.  As Roger McDowell (22 saves) and Jesse Orosco (21) split closing duties, the Mets piled up 108 regular season wins.  Now, if I contend, as I do, that relief pitchers need defined roles (i.e. only one person can be the closer), how do I account for this?

Feeling the need to avoid both a deeply statistical argument (the insignificance of a single event in a sea of seasons) and no argument at all, the phrase "the exception that proves the rule" popped into my head.  A-ha.  The '86 Mets would be said exception.  But wait, that phrase does not make any sense.  So, I looked it up.  Turns out that the saying has its roots in a Latin legal precept, "exceptio probat regulam in casibus non exceptis" ("the exception confirms the rule in cases not excepted").  It is the second clause that provides the oft ignored nuance.  Most take the colloquialism to mean that every rule needs an exception in order to be valid.  Rather it should be interpreted that in order for there to be an exception, there must first be a rule.  In other words, I cannot say that closer-by-committee does not work because of the 1986 Mets.  Instead, if I state "the only time the closer-by-committee was successful was with the 1986 Mets," it can then be assumed that the close-by-committee does not work except with the Mets in 1986.  You see the exception (the only time it worked was '86) proves the rule (the closer-by-committee does not work).

All that being understood, I am baffled why no less than five teams (Nationals, Cardinals, White Sox, Mets, Phillies) have been in multiple closer situations this season.  It happens in every season.  It fails in every season (who remembers the '04 Indians?).  It never lasts.  Inevitably one man commands the role.  There is a reason that the arrangement is always temporary.  It does not work.  Except for the '86 Mets.

A Quest Called Tribe

Jason Kipnis
So... remember all of that stuff that I said yesterday?  You know, about Jason Kipnis not coming up as long as Orlando Cabrera was on the roster?  And Jared Goedert getting a shot in September?  Yeah?

Rubbish.  Utter and complete bull plop.

Luis Valbuena has been optioned back to Columbus and Kipnis will be recalled before Friday's game against the White Sox.  Goedert will be DFA'ed to make room for Jason on the 40-man.  O-Cab will once again be relegated to a utility role.

The move is oddly timed considering Kipnis is 3-for-his-last-36 (.083) while Jason Donald is raking at .526 (19-36) over his past 10 games.  Expect Kipnis to play a lot, that means 5 starts a week if not more.  I do believe that this is a last ditch effort by the Tribe, hoping to avoid the necessity of making a big time trade.  If Kip can hit big league pitching, they probably do not have to.  If he cannot...

Still expect the Tribe to make some sort of move.  The chatter today is on former Indians Ryan Ludwick and Coco Crisp, with greater emphasis on the former.  These are middle range targets and the organization will likely pay the price (My guess - 3 B-/C+ prospects) for whichever they can get at a better value.

I could go into extravagant detail about how I was led astray with regard to Kipnis, but I will not.  Let me simply say that none of the Indians bloggers have any more access to inside information than any of the others.  Some might be more diligent and thus post releases more quickly, but, again, none of them have are privy to the Tribe's grand plan.  If there is one.

All we can do is learn from our mistakes.  In case you were not yet aware, that is what we call experience.

Here's to Kip invigorating the offense.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

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And I am totally cool with that.  Talking is optional. And clothing. ;-j

Pretty Girl 07.21.11 - Elisabeth Shue


So classy that she's in black and white.  I need a babysitter, please.