Energy just always changes state and I refuse to believe that human consciousness is the sole exception to this universal law."
- Mark Millar
Friday, November 19, 2010
Nike Brings The HaHa
Leaked over the weekend, this is an independent artist's approximation of what the Steelers unis will look like when Nike unveils their new "Pro-Combat" NFL uniforms for the 2012 season. The Browns' aren't much different than the current and classic, but many more are freakin' hilarious. Check 'em out here. Great job jumping at the money Goodell. I can't wait to see Nike's actual designs. And we'll have all of next fall to consider them as the NFL locks out. I'll bring a paper bag.
Biggest Indians Offseason Moves
The Indians have added 3B Jared Goedert, LHP Nick Hagadone, and RHPs Josh Judy, Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister to their 40-man roster. I had expected them to roster RHP Adam Miller, finally at full strength and ready to compete for a big league bullpen spot in March, rather than McAllister as they have invested a considerable amount of time and money into Miller's rehabilitation from a variety of injuries. Most notable among these was his groundbreaking finger pulley surgery from which he has only just recovered from. McAllister was obtained from the Yankees over the summer as part of the Austin Kearns trade. The thought process here is that the combination of organizational investment and probability of Rule 5 selection is lower for Miller than McAllister. I disagree with the Indians position as Miller seems the perfect Rule 5. If he remains healthy, he should be on a major league roster come opening day. If he gets hurt, any team that picks him can just offer the headache back to the Tribe. This move scares me. The most pleasant news here is that Goedert was, indeed, added to the roster. Many of the talking heads had discounted the possibility, feeling that the Indians powers-that-be do not trust Goedert's glove. His addition speaks to the probability that the Tribe will give the youngster the opportunity to win the third base job in the spring. Pay attention, the kid's a hitter and his defense is fine.
The Ironing Is Delicious
TBJ exclusive: Like A Bosh from The Basketball Jones on Vimeo.
Bosh's line from Wednesday night - 35 points, 6 boards, 11-11 at the line
Golden Choo
South Korea defeated Taiwan 9-3 today to win baseball gold at the 2010 Asian Games. Who cares, right? We do! Shin Soo Choo's participation on the gold medal team serves to exempt him from military service. Thus, Choo's career will not be interrupted by the mandatory 2 year hitch that all South Korean males must undertake before the age of 30. Even better, I never have to hear about this ridiculous topic again. The only downside is that it supersedes my plan to send Andy Marte in Choo's stead.
Complimentary Movies
86 points? Could they not see the ball carrier?
Out for yet another season. Have I told you I have a Greg Oden jersey?
Winning Isn't Everything, It's... Nothing?
So... 13-12 was good enough to get King Felix the AL Cy Young award. As I've been informed about 32 times today, that is the lowest win total of any awardee in a non-interrupted (see '81, '94, '95) season. There has been much debate, but most agree that we have seen a dramatic shift in voting tendencies over the past few years. Former winner, future Hall of Famer and current MLB network talking head, John Smoltz, is in favor of a rubric of sorts, an objective measure that "recommends" the winner. I've seen enough BcS malarkey to feel confident that such an algorithm cannot be effectively constructed.
There is, of course, a middle ground. While Felix Hernandez fell many wins behind CC Sabathia, the former outshone the latter in several other statistical categories, such as IP, WHIP, and Ks. I have a favorite "meta" stat that seems to be wildly accurate in synthesizing all of this data. It's called WAR. That stands for Wins Above Replacement. I've mentioned it before and, again, I shan't derive the equation, but, basically, it represents the number of additional wins that any player contributes to his team above and beyond those of a AAAA (think Jeremy Sowers, ouch) player. To evidence my contention, the top 62 all-time in WAR are either in the Hall of Fame or definitely will be (think Clemens or Pujols). Of the top 100, 95 fall into these categories, 2 more will likely get in someday via the veterans committee (Whitaker, Grich) and 1 is Pete Rose. The long and short of it is that, historically, WAR is pretty damn accurate in defining the best players (#1 is Babe Ruth).
Felix Hernandez was #1 among AL pitchers in WAR this year, as was Zack Greinke in 2009, Cliff Lee in 2008 and CC Sabathia in 2007. In fact the only time since 2002 that the best in WAR did not win the AL Cy Young was 2005 when Bartolo Colon took it over Johan Santana based on Bart's 21 wins. That vote was widely disparaged then and widely referenced today as the genesis of the current outlook on pitching supremacy. Still, as previously mentioned, this statistic is not omniscient, is imperfect and should not be the only metric to evaluate a player. The easiest example of this is this years NL Cy Young vote. Roy Halladay won with the 2nd best WAR, while Ubaldo Jimenez finished a distant 3rd despite a better WAR. The watchword here is consistency. In the 2nd half Ubaldo was a pedestrian 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA. His ERA in July was 6.04. Granted 15-1 and a 2.20 before the break is pretty damn impressive. Hell, on June 7th Jimenez was 11-1 with an 0.93! Halladay, on the other hand, never went less than 5 2/3 and pitched at least 7 innings in a remarkable 29 of 33 starts. He walked 30 in 250 2/3 innings and his ERA was between 1.80 and 2.53 from May onward. Regardless of the nearly un-hittable stretch that Jimenez put together early in the season, they play 162 games. If the winner had been picked at the break, no doubt that it would have been Ubaldo, but Doc showed up from April to October and was clearly the superior overall performer.
Anotherquick example, because it is my favorite. In 1990 Bob Welch of the Oakland A's won the AL Cy Young with a 27-6 record and a 2.95 ERA. Those sound like awesome numbers, right? Wrong. Roger Clemens was 21-6 with a 1.93. Dude gave up 7 home runs in 31 starts. His season translated to a 9.5 WAR. So Welch must have been 2nd or 2rd, right? Tied for 9th? Sorry, I can't even tell you where he ranked because baseballreference.com only lists the top 10, which included such all-time greats as Steve Farr and Greg Hibbard. Hibbard tied teammate Bobby Thigpen (the 57 save season) with a 3.5 WAR. Welch's was 2.5. Here's a little perspective... Bud Black had a 3.0 for the Indians. Black was 13-11 with a 111 ERA+. Remember Sergio Valdez (6-6, 4.75)? Mike Walker (2-6, 4.88)? Kevin Bearse (0-2, 12.91)? No? Lucky you. They all started for the Tribe in 1990. They all had WARs between 0 and -1. This means, wait for it, any of them could have won 23 or 24 games for the Bash Brother Athletics. And they gave it to Welch. Sheesh. It's nice to find some enlightenment these days.
Cheers.
There is, of course, a middle ground. While Felix Hernandez fell many wins behind CC Sabathia, the former outshone the latter in several other statistical categories, such as IP, WHIP, and Ks. I have a favorite "meta" stat that seems to be wildly accurate in synthesizing all of this data. It's called WAR. That stands for Wins Above Replacement. I've mentioned it before and, again, I shan't derive the equation, but, basically, it represents the number of additional wins that any player contributes to his team above and beyond those of a AAAA (think Jeremy Sowers, ouch) player. To evidence my contention, the top 62 all-time in WAR are either in the Hall of Fame or definitely will be (think Clemens or Pujols). Of the top 100, 95 fall into these categories, 2 more will likely get in someday via the veterans committee (Whitaker, Grich) and 1 is Pete Rose. The long and short of it is that, historically, WAR is pretty damn accurate in defining the best players (#1 is Babe Ruth).
Felix Hernandez was #1 among AL pitchers in WAR this year, as was Zack Greinke in 2009, Cliff Lee in 2008 and CC Sabathia in 2007. In fact the only time since 2002 that the best in WAR did not win the AL Cy Young was 2005 when Bartolo Colon took it over Johan Santana based on Bart's 21 wins. That vote was widely disparaged then and widely referenced today as the genesis of the current outlook on pitching supremacy. Still, as previously mentioned, this statistic is not omniscient, is imperfect and should not be the only metric to evaluate a player. The easiest example of this is this years NL Cy Young vote. Roy Halladay won with the 2nd best WAR, while Ubaldo Jimenez finished a distant 3rd despite a better WAR. The watchword here is consistency. In the 2nd half Ubaldo was a pedestrian 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA. His ERA in July was 6.04. Granted 15-1 and a 2.20 before the break is pretty damn impressive. Hell, on June 7th Jimenez was 11-1 with an 0.93! Halladay, on the other hand, never went less than 5 2/3 and pitched at least 7 innings in a remarkable 29 of 33 starts. He walked 30 in 250 2/3 innings and his ERA was between 1.80 and 2.53 from May onward. Regardless of the nearly un-hittable stretch that Jimenez put together early in the season, they play 162 games. If the winner had been picked at the break, no doubt that it would have been Ubaldo, but Doc showed up from April to October and was clearly the superior overall performer.
Another
Cheers.
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