You're Waiting For a Train...

Friday, July 22, 2011

Pretty Girl 07.22.11 - Jami Gertz

A very few women do get better with age. Exhibit A.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Closer Committees And Confused Colloquialisms

Wow. This all started out because I have Ryan Madson on my fantasy baseball team. For those of you who do not know, Madson emerged from a pack of relievers to be crowned the Phillies' closer early on in the season. More recently he did a stint on the disabled list, from which he has just returned. In his absence I had added Antonio Bastardo (real name) who handled the Fightin' Phils' closing duties with aplomb whilst Madson healed. Now that both are healthy, the well wizened Charlie Manuel (wasn't he senile when he was in Cleveland?) has suggested that the NL East leaders will use the dreaded "closer by committee." This spawned the question, "Has the closer by committee ever been used successfully?"

As I dug for the answer to this question, I felt the need to refine my query. I decided, somewhat arbitrarily, to discover if teammates had ever posted 20 saves. Some might argue that this is too limited a standard, that teams like the '85 Cardinals or 1990 Reds should apply. I do not buy it. A successful closer-by-committee implies that there was consistent and equitable success. One guy with 30 saves and one with 10 is irrelevant. Two dudes with 13 means the team sucked.

Now, baseball-reference.com has a great tool to discover exactly such situations. Unfortunately, they want me to pay for the privilege of using it. F that. After much Googling, it seems that a team has had two relievers with 20 saves or more exactly once: the 1986 New York Mets.

The '86 Mets won the World Series (What up, Bill Buckner?), so this is pretty fantastic success. As Roger McDowell (22 saves) and Jesse Orosco (21) split closing duties, the Mets piled up 108 regular season wins. Now, if I contend, as I do, that relief pitchers need defined roles (i.e. only one person can be the closer), how do I account for this?

Feeling the need to avoid both a deeply statistical argument (the insignificance of a single event in a sea of seasons) and no argument at all, the phrase "the exception that proves the rule" popped into my head. A-ha. The '86 Mets would be said exception. But wait, that phrase does not make any sense. So, I looked it up. Turns out that the saying has its roots in a Latin legal precept, "exceptio probat regulam in casibus non exceptis" ("the exception confirms the rule in cases not excepted"). It is the second clause that provides the oft ignored nuance. Most take the colloquialism to mean that every rule needs an exception in order to be valid. Rather it should be interpreted that in order for there to be an exception, there must first be a rule. In other words, I cannot say that closer-by-committee does not work because of the 1986 Mets. Instead, if I state "the only time the closer-by-committee was successful was with the 1986 Mets," it can then be assumed that the close-by-committee does not work except with the Mets in 1986. You see the exception (the only time it worked was '86) proves the rule (the closer-by-committee does not work).

All that being understood, I am baffled why no less than five teams (Nationals, Cardinals, White Sox, Mets, Phillies) have been in multiple closer situations this season. It happens in every season. It fails in every season (who remembers the '04 Indians?). It never lasts. Inevitably one man commands the role. There is a reason that the arrangement is always temporary. It does not work. Except for the '86 Mets.

A Quest Called Tribe

Jason Kipnis

So... remember all of that stuff that I said yesterday? You know, about Jason Kipnis not coming up as long as Orlando Cabrera was on the roster? And Jared Goedert getting a shot in September? Yeah?

Rubbish. Utter and complete bull plop.

Luis Valbuena has been optioned back to Columbus and Kipnis will be recalled before Friday's game against the White Sox. Goedert will be DFA'ed to make room for Jason on the 40-man. O-Cab will once again be relegated to a utility role.

The move is oddly timed considering Kipnis is 3-for-his-last-36 (.083) while Jason Donald is raking at .526 (19-36) over his past 10 games. Expect Kipnis to play a lot, that means 5 starts a week if not more. I do believe that this is a last ditch effort by the Tribe, hoping to avoid the necessity of making a big time trade. If Kip can hit big league pitching, they probably do not have to. If he cannot...

Still expect the Tribe to make some sort of move. The chatter today is on former Indians Ryan Ludwick and Coco Crisp, with greater emphasis on the former. These are middle range targets and the organization will likely pay the price (My guess - 3 B-/C+ prospects) for whichever they can get at a better value.

I could go into extravagant detail about how I was led astray with regard to Kipnis, but I will not. Let me simply say that none of the Indians bloggers have any more access to inside information than any of the others. Some might be more diligent and thus post releases more quickly, but, again, none of them have are privy to the Tribe's grand plan. If there is one.

All we can do is learn from our mistakes. In case you were not yet aware, that is what we call experience.

Here's to Kip invigorating the offense.

Cheers.

Totally 100% Real Ad Campaigns

There are a bunch of these, but the above is the most unbelievable.

Click here for some fun parodies.

Cheers.

Hot Soccer Chicks Drop the Ball

And I am totally cool with that. Talking is optional. And clothing. ;-j

Pretty Girl 07.21.11 - Elisabeth Shue

So classy that she's in black and white. I need a babysitter, please.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Long Time No Clip Joint

Nick Johnson

Due to the Indians unwillingness to make the appropriate moves with their minor league talent, I became disinterested for about a week. Or maybe I was just lazy. Or possessed by deeply seeded emotional problems. Whatever. Right back on the ~~whores~~ horse.

Nick Johnson is back in the Clippers line-up, returning from an ankle injury and a stint on the DL. What he is not doing is hitting. Since coming back on July 15th, Johnson is 1-for-16 (.063) with 3 walks. On the upside, the one hit was a home run. On the downside, he is in a 3-for-32 (.094) slump overall. It now seems unlikely that Nick (.182) will be able to provide the Indians with any sort of assistance this season.

The same, unfortunately, can be said of Jared Goedert. Goedert (.199) has ticked upward of late (6-for-20 in his last 5), but has shown remarkably little power since rejoining the Clippers. Jared has not gone deep in 13 July games and has batted just .176. I still believe that he gets a September recall simply because he is on the 40-man roster. It will likely be his last chance with the organization. He should make the best of it.

Also slumping in top prospect Jason Kipnis. Kipnis (.281) is just 3-for-33 (.091) over his last 8 games, including 9 K's and an 0-for-5 tonight. The preponderance of opinion is that his future is inextricably linked to that of Orlando Cabrera. Read that as, "As long as O-Cab is an Indian and healthy, Jason Kipnis will not come to Cleveland." It is possible that the Tribe will call for him after the AAA post-season to give him a taste of the show, but certainly do not expect any more.

The only Clipper who seems to be hitting is Jason Donald. 16-for-31 (.516) since July 7th, it is high time for Donald (.326) to be added to the 25-man roster. The Indians have thrown every other infielder out there with minimal results. At least we know Jason can hit .250 in the bigs.

Oh yeah, the Clips lost 6-1 tonight. Corey Kluber (4-6, 6.09) took the L after allowing four earned over six innings. He gave up 7 hits and 2 walks while fanning 7. Do not look for Kluber in Cleveland this season.

Other Minor Points of Interest --

Drew Pomeranz was a hard luck loser tonight, in his first AA home start. Pom (3-3, 1.87 overall) was his dominant self, surrendering a run on three hits over five innings, while walking 2 and whiffing six. It is outstanding to see Drew continue his success at the next level. Barring any injury concerns, he should be a viable option for the big club in 2012.

Things did not turn out so well for Adam Miller. Everything was going along swimmingly for Miller until July 9th, since then his ERA is 8.72. Tonight Adam (1-2, 4.32 overall) gave up 3 earned on five hits over two innings. Yesterday, the organization passed up an opportunity to bring him up to AAA, promoting Tyler Sturdevant (who?) instead. Combine this with Miller's rough patch and his immediate future become awful murky. Hopefully we see him at AAA in 2011, but hopes of him making his big league debut this year appear to be dimming.

Finally, let us catch up on a few low-level prospects. Tony Wolters (.276) doubled twice tonight and drove in his 10th run. Wolters has stolen 9 of 11 bases over his 31 games this season. Felix Sterling made his fourth start for the AZL Indians and, despite taking the loss, it was a good one. Sterling (2-3, 4.10) allowed one earned on 3 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings. He stuck out 9 and has a 10.6 K/9 for the season. And pemit me to introduce you to an 18-year old Dominican who is tearing up the Arizona League. Over 17 games, Luigi Rodriguez is batting an even .400 with a 1.006 OPS. The man that I am sure will be called L-Rod has homered twice and stolen 8 bases. He obviously has speed to burn as he swiped 31 and tripled 10 times in 63 games for the Indians DSL team last year.

Cheers.

A Quest Called Tribe

So much for the Bullpen Mafia. Over the past 6 games (11.1 IP), in which the Tribe is 2-4, the relief corps is 0-2 with an 11.12 ERA, a 2.03 WHIP and a .340 OBA. This is not the Bad Durbin effect either. A day after Chris Perez retired just one hitter en route to blowing the save, Tony Sipp and Vinnie Pestano combined on an epic FAIL of their own. If, perhaps, they had surrendered just one run, Lonnie Chisenhall's second career home run might have taken them off of the hook. No such luck.

The Tribe now heads home following a 4-4 road trip which, under normal conditions, would be a-ok. Unfortunately, the eight games came in series against two last place clubs. As mentioned yesterday, Manny Acta has made some decisions over the past few days that have been questionable at best. Although I would love to lay the blame for running two men short (due to a tummy ache and a head ache no less), I shall not assume to know how much of a say Acta has in the decision to put someone on the disabled list. What I can hold him fully accountable for is how he utilizes the talent that is available to him. After last night's debacle in left field, maybe putting Matt LaPorta out there is a better choice than Luis Valbuena. Even if we allow Manny the first error, the failure to pinch hit Lou Marson (.362 vs LHP, .300 overall since June 7th) for Valbuena against a tough left-hander with two runners in scoring position and one out in the 7th is inexcusable. If Lou comes through with even a sac fly in that situation, the dynamic of the game completely changes and Tony Sipp is likely not afforded the opportunity to load the bases in the 8th.

Maybe all of the losing is getting to me. Or maybe Acta-ball truly is dead. Maybe the philosophy of "keeping everyone involved" must now demure to playing the hot hand. Maybe putting Buck on the new 7-day DL (specifically designed for concussions and the like) and bringing Shelley Duncan back would have been advisable. Maybe everything has to go right for the Tribe to make the playoffs. Maybe it will.

Here's to the cards falling our way.

Cheers.