C'mon This Is Basic Stuff

Normally, I feel as if everyone is entitled to their own opinion.  While I might disagree with an assertion, I am always open to another point of view.  There is one staggering caveat here: the argument must be supported with some kind of evidence.

That being said, I cannot believe that either the PD or Cleveland.com allowed this piece to see the light of day.  Here is the gist of the author's position: with Josh Hamilton the Rangers play (as of 07.22) .661 ball, without him .421.  Both Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre have a higher WAR than Hamilton.  Thus, WAR is a silly "new-fangled" statistic that provides no useful information. 

I could take innumerable stances against this contention.  How about "WAR accounts for games played, rather than games not played, especially those lost after breaking your arm trying to score from third on a pop out to between home and third.  Maybe WAR rewards those who do not make god awful stupid decisions.  You would need to take a WAR/G average to build in games missed due to injury."  Or "Look at the top 10 in career WAR (Ruth, Bonds, Cobb, Mays, Cy Young, Aaron, Walter Johnson, Wagner, Speaker, Clemens) and tell me that it does a poor job of ranking players.  Of the top 63 in career WAR, all of them are either in the Hall of Fame, definitely will be in the Hall of Fame (think Maddux), or have been caught up in the steroid scandal.  If you want to allow a couple of 19th century guys and Peter Edward Rose, then it covers the top 83."  I could take issue with this entirely subjective and unsupported statement --

"And maybe it doesn't matter that Hamilton continues to drive in runs at a lofty pace; is such a feared hitter that the batters around him get better pitches to hit; is an outstanding base-runner; has excellent range in the outfield and a great throwing arm; plays hard almost to a fault; is integral to the Rangers' excellent camaraderie and chemistry, etc."

Thankfully, I do not need to make any of those arguments.  All I need to do is simply point out one of the most basic logical theorems: CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION!!!!!  Did I put enough emphasis on that?  Am I going to waste my time digging into the myriad of reasons that Rangers did not perform well during those 38 games?  Absolutely not.  The pure fact is that just because Texas plays 200 points lower without Hamilton does not mean it was because Hamilton was not in the lineup.  For instance, the Cardinals had a higher slugging percentage when Albert Pujols was on the DL.  Weird.  That is because there are an incalculable amount of variables at play.  Hey, my Indians are 0-5 this season when I watch the game at a bar.  Thus, obviously, the place at which I watch the game has a direct negative influence on the Tribe's ability to win.  Right?  Right?

If the author wants to express his deep and abiding man-crush on Josh Hamilton or continue to live in an antiquated fantasy world where batting average is still the premier statistic, I'm cool with that, but it is simply deplorable that a respected media outlet would print the ramble.  The author closes his piece as follows --

"Maybe Hamilton's "Wins Above Replacement" is so far off the charts it's simply invisible."

Maybe Mike Pettica's understanding of  baseball is so minuscule it's simply non-existent and the only reason that he is still being paid is that he has 40 years of experience.  (Nice assumed "that" and contracted "it's", you hack.)

Cheers.

Lessons of 1995

The thing about pitching prospects is they tend to not pan out. Pom and White are being described as two front of the rotation guys, but the chances are very good one of those guys is going to be a flop. And the one that succeeds is going to eat up a lot of his MLB service time perfecting his craft. Remember Cliff Lee wasn't even on the 2007 playoff rotation. And CC was mediocre for most of his time under the Indians control.

If you look at the deal in that light, getting 2 and a half years of Ubaldo is a great deal. Its a big assumption, but if his weak stats this year were due to an injury that really is behind him, he is a major addition to an already strong rotation. The tribe will get 2.5 years of a top notch pitcher. The reality of pitching prospects is that we probably weren't going to get 2.5 years of good pitching out of Pom and White, espically not in this window that has opened up to control the central.

Another aspect here is that Ubaldo came with a cheap contract. This trade didn't suck up scarce payroll dollars, and maybe they'll be able to make a run at some free agents this off season.

Fans I've talked to wanted a bat. But hitting didn't get it done for us in the 1990's. Ublaldo, Masterson, Tomlin, Carrasco, Carmona. That's a pretty good rotation. And we still have more in Columbus. With just a little bit of hitting out of the guys we already have this team can win the division.

Pretty Girl 07.31.11 - Gina Carano

I bet she'd let me punch her the face because she wouldn't even feel it.

Pretty Girl 07.30.11 - Jena Malone

It helps that she will look forever illegal.

Indians Acquire Ubaldo Jimenez

The Tribe sends LHP Drew Pomeranz, RHP Alex White, RHP Joe Gardner and C/1B/OF Matt McBride to the Rockies.  That is a steep price to pay for a man that has gone 9-15 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over the past 365 days. Ubaldo has experienced a noticeable drop in velocity on both his fastball (97->93) and his slider (87->83).  He explains,

"I didn't pitch well early because of my thumb and groin (hip flexor) injury. I didn't build up my arm strength in spring, so I didn't have my velocity or breaking ball. That's why I struggled. Right now, I feel like I can dominate again.''

His velocity has begun to rise, though it is still not back to the level of 2010.  If you would like some good news, in 2011 Jimenez is 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP away from the the hitters' haven of Coors Field.  His 2010 road numbers were equally impressive (10-6, 2.63, 1.08 WHIP).

While McBride is a throw away and we have been listening to the ballad of Alex White all summer long, Pomeranz is a huge piece to give away.  Recently listed as the 14th best prospect in the Baseball America mid-season rankings, Pom cannot be officially traded until the one year anniversary of his signing date (08.16).  Thus, he is currently listed as a PTBNL in the deal.  Just to be clear, the Tribe has given up their pre-season #2 (White), #4 (Pomeranz) & #9 (Gardner) prospects.  This had better work out.

Let us cross our fingers that the physical on Jimenez comes back clean.  The Rockies have refused all askers the opportunity to examine Ubaldo before completion of a trade.

Cheers.

Good Idea!

A light bulb just lit up above my head.  Hide your iPods, ladies.

Pretty Girl 07.29.11 - Maria Sharapova

She plays tennis or something.  I dunno.

Pretty Girl 07.28.11 - Vanessa Branch

She'll have a dirty mouth when I'm done with her. (It's the Orbit gum girl)

Indians Acquire Kosuke Fukudome

The Tribe sends RHP Carlton Smith and OF Abner Abreu to the Cubs.  Everything is official now.  Smith has lingered at AAA for the past two seasons, producing a brilliant start to the 2011 campaign then regressing back to mediocrity (at best).  It would have taken a slew of injuries for him to ever see the bigs with the Indians.  Abreu was ranked in the organizational top 10 prospects in 2009, coming off of an .839 OPS season with Lake County.  The multi-tooled outfielder has done little since, striking out 232 times over the past two seasons at Kinston.  He had been on a tear recently (.352, 8 HR, 17 RBI in July) and is the reigning Carolina League player of the week.  Abner needs a ton of work to even be considered big league worthy, but he is still just 21.  This is a bargain price to pay for a player that can certainly help the team contend and can be counted with only a select few of his new teammates as a "true" big leaguer. 

The Indians will pay just $775k of the $4.83mil remaining on Fukudome's $13.5mil salary for 2011.  The 34-year old outfielder will waive his no-trade clause in exchange for as yet undetermined "perks."  His contract includes an odd clause that the controlling team must sign him to an extension by 11.14.11 or release him into the free agent pool.

One would expect Kosuke to play his natural RF until Shin-Soo Choo returns.  Ezequiel Carrera moves to the bench, with Michael Brantley moving back to center and the platoon switching to left.  The odd man out is Travis Buck, who has been DFA'ed to create space for Fukudome on both the 40 and 25-man rosters.  What a shame.  After his monster spring, I honestly expected Buck to be of great help.

Cheers.

Pretty Girl Update! - Kristin Cavallari's Back On the Market

I'm on way, Kristin.  I'll make it all better.