8-74 is unlikely. That would entail 55 straight losses and I think that even the Cavs can luck one out before then. The fact of the matter is that it is totally irrelevant. They might win 8 games or they might win a few more. Dollars to doughnuts though, they will have the most ping pong balls on lottery day. If the gods don't decide that it's retribution time for 2003, then the #1 pick will come to Cleveland. Who will that pick be? Having scoured the Web for mock drafts, I have found only 4 names listed at the top - Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III and Harrison Barnes.
Let's deal with each in turn --
Harrison Barnes - 6'8" 210lbs - SF - North Carolina (Fr)
If you had asked just about anyone, before the season began, who the 2011 #1 pick would be, Barnes would have been the answer. He was the first freshman to be selected as a pre-season all-american by the AP, his high school reel is spectacular and his build resembles the dearly departed. Unfortunately, we actually had to play the games. Barnes has averaged a solid 13.1/5.3/1.4 while turning the ball over only twice a game. He has helped Carolina back into the Top 25. Troublesomely, he has done so by shooting barely 40% from the floor and seeming completely lost at times. Barnes is a do everything wing, whose upside mirrors the best in the league (no, I'm not going to use his name). When (not if), he reaches that potential he will be the exactly the dynamic centerpiece that the Cavs need, but Barnes has not yet even acclimated to the college game which is going to make his transition to the NBA doubly difficult. If he comes out (right now I call it a coin flip), he will go in the top half of the first round, but, unless he wows us through March, he's not going #1.
Kyrie Irving - 6'2" 180lbs - PG - Duke (Fr)
Do the Cavs need a 1? Do they need a leader on the floor? Do they need an exciting scorer whose energy will raise the play of the rest of the team. I'm going to step way out onto a limb here and say "Hell, Yes!" This is the pick. This is the guy who will begin the foundation of the next generation of contending Cavaliers and make the team marketable again by the time Dan Gilbert's casino opens in 2013. Done. Finished. Next time, I'll... Wait... What? He's only played 8 games this year and might very well miss the remainder with a toe injury so bizarre that the doctors can't even name it? Well, that's OK, he'll be ready by summer league time. His upside and his numbers (17.4/3.8/5.1, 53/45/90%) are simply too good to pass up. Oh, crap, he's not coming out. If he does, this is the pick, but he's not. Moving on.
Perry Jones III - 6'10" 220lbs - PF - Baylor (Fr)
I like to call him Percy, but either works. Those who dig this cat point to the fact that you can't teach size and this guy has the body to grow into an NBA beast. His numbers are fair (13.9 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 57% fg) and he has been dominant at times this year. For me though, something seems off. Either he's overwhelmed by the speed of the game in the NCAA or he's lazy or he's just not very bright. Jones can simply disappear from the mix on offense, not moving well without the ball or turning timid when he receives it. True, he can score from anywhere inside of the arc, but only when he wants to. Some of his moves are dazzling, but their lack of frequency is troubling. Perhaps what gives me the longest pause is his defense. He is described in scouting reports as being "an outstanding shot-blocker," and yet he averages less than a block a game. On many possessions I have seen Jones staring at where the ball was rather than fronting his man or rotating with the offense. This leads to a plethora of easy inside points and is my strongest critique of Perry. Again, this is a guy who has tremendous potential. If he gets into the right environment, adds some weight and screws his head on straight, he will become a force to be reckoned with. Those are a lot of "ifs." You can't teach size, but you can't teach desire either. Again, NBA GMs like to speculate, like to think they're smarter than everyone else, so Jones will likely go in the top 5. Still, I am begging you Chris Grant, begging you, not this guy, not now.
Jared Sullinger - 6'9" 280lbs - PF - Ohio State (Fr)
Let me say, right out of the gate, that this is my guy. I was handed the Kool-Aid and I drank it down. Sullinger is NBA ready right now. Not in October, not on draft day, he was ready yesterday. Critics point to his 6'9" stature as too short to play the 4 in the Association. Taken in a vacuum that is entirely true, but doing so is down right foolish. Sullinger's footwork is beyond amazing. He can take literally any 3/4/5 in the NCAA and make him look like a chump in 5 seconds. His first move is to go around his man rather than over or through him (although he can do both). Many defenders are left standing with their arms straight up as Sullinger dunks or drops in a weak hand hook. His body is ready to bang on the NBA blocks. Sullinger isn't going to need 2 years in the weight room to build his frame, he's a rock now. And his hands are baby soft. Not once this season have I seen a unforced fumble or dropped pass. Sullinger shoots 73% from the line and has the form to become a Tim Duncan-esque jump shooter. This dude is so damn good, so damn polished that his numbers (18.0/9.9/1.4 w/ 57% fgs) become irrelevant. In fact, the only argument against Sullinger (other than his height) is that he doesn't have huge growth potential from here, that we're seeing close to the best that he's got. To punish him for this would be tantamount to saying that he got too good too fast. Sure, Harrison Barnes is going to refine and expand his game to the point that he will appear an entirely new player, but Sullinger doesn't have to. I say he's good for 18 & 12 for a decade, at least. Think David West or Kenyon Martin if he never got hurt. Think Charles Barkley if he kept his mouth shut. He's not the sexiest pick, but he is the best. If he is not #1, it will because the Cavaliers have gone in search of an entertainer rather than a basketball player and that would be a shame.
Don't get me wrong Irving or Barnes would be great. Despite the fact that I am firmly in Sullinger's corner, it is most important that they don't take Perry Jones. If Irving and Barnes go back and Sullinger isn't pretty enough for you, take Derrick Williams from Arizona or even Terrence Jones from Kentucky (ooh, a lefty!). This pick is too important to blow on a kid whose best quality is his god given size. Go get a real player and you will be happy. Especially during that playoff run in 2013.
Cheers.
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