Only A Sure Thing Is A Sure Thing

Yay, Ubaldo Jimenez!  When an organization gives up prospects #2 (Alex White), #4 (Drew Pomeranz) & #9 (Joe Gardner) at the trading deadline (plus former 2nd round pick, Matt McBride), the return should be a proven major league commodity.  Despite the fact that Jimenez will remain under team control through 2014, we have absolutely no idea what we will be getting.  Over his past 40 starts, Ubaldo is 12-16 with 4.80 ERA.  That does not sound like a number one starter to me.  With a velocity dip of between 3 & 4 MPH on his best two pitches and 2011 WHIP of nearly 1.4, he does not inspire fear in anyone.  What he might do in any given start is a microcosm of what he might do over the next few seasons, it is anyone's guess.  I do not mean that in the "no one can predict the future" sense.  Rather the Indians have traded a handful of young prospects for a 27-year with great potential, who has yet to put together for more than a couple of months at the big league level and has already been hampered by a number of nagging injuries.

While the sensation of having the Tribe bringing on talent instead of fire-selling it away certainly warms the cockles of my heart, I cringe to wonder what this trade might reap.  When the organization traded away CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, each coming off of a Cy Young season, their dominance had already inspired some to predict Hall of Fame futures.  While I understand that this is, by all means putting, the cart before the horse, it seems much more likely that Jimenez will slot with Ernie Broglio and Doyle Alexander and it will be Drew Pomeranz that is spoken of alongside Lou Brock and John Smoltz.  Don't know who the first two are?  Exactly.  Hell, even it is not Pom, it could be White or Gardner.  Think about that as you marvel at how similar Ubaldo is to one Fausto Carmona.  Wonder why he has such tantalizing option years the first time that he walks six and lasts 10 outs.

If this team had been one or two players short of making a serious run at a pennant, then, as a mid-market team, this is the sort of trade that reality necessitates.  Sadly, the 2011 Indians, now sitting a single game over .500 and with 23 wins in their past 60 games, are not that team.  Even if young talent, incisive moves and pure dumb luck conspire to produce a playoff appearance, it will be brief.  Is a token ALDS appearance worth bending over backwards for the team we should have swept in 2007?

I understand that murderer's row redux does not equal a world championship, but betting the farm on a guy that is, at best, a coin flip is a great way to preclude playing for one for yet another decade.

All of that being said, I do very much hope that I am exactly wrong.

Cheers